The Toronto housing market experienced a tumultuous 2024, marked by modest sales volumes and relatively flat prices across the low-rise and condominium segments. As we enter 2025, several key trends, risk factors, and economic variables are expected to shape the market’s trajectory. This article delves into the current state of one of the most dynamic housing markets in Canada, analyzing recent statistics, forecasting price movements, and identifying the top risks buyers, sellers, and investors should consider in the coming year.
What are the Current Toronto Housing Market Statistics?
The Toronto housing market in 2024 was characterized by significant cooling in both the low-rise and condominium segments. Sales volumes for low-rise houses, including detached, semi-detached, and townhomes, increased slightly compared to 2023.
However, 2023 and 2024 recorded the lowest sales volumes for low-rise homes in over two decades, as high prices and interest rates continued suppressing demand.
Toronto Average Home Price
As of December 2024, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market exhibited the following key statistics:
- The benchmark home price for December 2024 was $1,061,900, a 0.2% year-over-year increase.
- The average home price decreased by 1.6% year-over-year to $1,067,186.
- The median home price was $930,000, a 2.3% year-over-year increase.
Toronto sales and listings
New listings in the low-rise market remained slightly below the long-term average. Despite the combination of lower-than-average listings and 20-year-low sales, home prices proved resilient, with average prices dipping compared to 2023. This “sticky” pricing environment is typical of slower markets, as sellers hesitate to lower their expectations significantly.
- There were 3,359 transactions in December 2024, a 2.5% year-over-year decrease.
- New listings totalled 4,681, a 20.5% year-over-year increase.
- Active listings reached 15,393, a 48% year-over-year increase.
These end-of-year numbers show Toronto’s housing market stabilizing but still below its former peak. With sales, listings, and prices moderating in December, early 2025 will reveal if more momentum is building.
Toronto housing market by property type
| Property Type | Average Price | Year-over-Year Change | Transactions | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | $1,399,209 | -1.3% | 1,423 | -6.4% |
| Semi-Detached | $1,088,543 | +5.9% | 292 | -9.9% |
| Townhouse | $1,015,505 | +1.9% | 377 | +2.2% |
| Condo Apartment | $681,855 | -0.1% | 960 | +1.7% |
Across the GTA, the top three most expensive cities were King ($2.5M average price), Oakville ($1.4M), and Richmond Hill ($1.3M), while the most affordable were Mono ($675K), Orangeville ($824K), and Ajax ($887K).
Toronto Housing Market Outlook for 2025
Experts predict varying price growth across property types in the Toronto housing market for 2025:
- Detached homes are expected to see the strongest demand and price growth, with a 6% increase anticipated.
- Semi-detached homes and townhouses may experience moderate price growth.
- Condo apartments are forecasted to see the slowest recovery, with prices remaining flat or slightly lower (-1%) compared to 2024.
The pace of market recovery will likely be gradual, with sales volumes picking up in late January and February, ahead of the typically busy spring market. However, the condo market’s rebound may be delayed until at least the normal spring timeframe or later.
Toronto Outlook for 2025 By Region
Housing markets across the Greater Toronto Area are expected to follow broadly similar paths in 2025, with condos lagging behind detached homes and regional markets experiencing varying conditions.
City of Toronto – Annual price declines slightly exceed the GTA average as sales and listings slip lower. Condo weakness weighs on the city market.
Mississauga – Prices are forecast to rise nearly 3% annually, outpacing the GTA. But condo prices remain flat, consistent with the wider softness.
Brampton – Average prices fell to a 4-year low in December 2024, potentially signalling struggles ahead. Sales are also down annually.
Oshawa – Provides a bright spot, with its average price up 5.7% in December 2024. However, sales declined markedly.
The takeaway is that condo price stagnation will be the norm across the GTA’s major urban markets. Meanwhile, conditions for detached and other ground-oriented homes should fare better through 2025.
Overall, the Toronto housing market’s performance in 2025 will depend on a combination of factors, including economic conditions, interest rate movements, and government policies. Buyers and sellers should remain patient and consult with local real estate and mortgage professionals to navigate the evolving market landscape.
Explore Canada Housing Market 2025
What are the Risks for Toronto’s Housing Market in 2025?
While the forecast calls for housing market improvements in 2025, experts point to a number of critical risks that could alter the landscape.
New Condo Completions
Many condos set for completion in 2025 may be worth significantly less than their purchase prices from four or more years ago. Buyers who paid a 30-40% premium over resale units, anticipating continued appreciation, may face challenges if banks no longer accept “blanket appraisals” and require additional down payments to cover the shortfall. This could lead to an increase in buyer defaults and potential project failures.
Oversupply in the Rental Market
A significant portion of condos completed in 2025 were purchased by investors, which could flood the rental market with new listings. Simultaneously, reduced immigration targets and a slowdown in population growth may lead to a cooling in rental demand, putting downward pressure on rents.
Small Condo Oversupply
In 2024, the market for small condos, typically owned by investors, saw a surge in listings as many decided to sell. Flat prices, falling rents, and high interest rates have made condos less attractive investments, leading to elevated inventory levels as more investors exit than enter the market. This trend is likely to persist in 2025.
Economic headwinds
The imbalance between condo completions and new construction starts in the GTA may lead to job losses in the construction sector in 2025, weighing on Canada’s economy. Due to the sharp decline in the new housing market, builders are unlikely to start a similar number of new units for every 10,000 units completed.
High interest rates remain for longer than expected
While buyers and sellers anticipate significantly lower interest rates in 2025, there may be a disconnect between expectations and reality. The Bank of Canada may continue cutting rates, but variable rates may only drop to around 4% or the high 3% range. Influenced by U.S. bond yields, five-year fixed rates are also expected to remain elevated, with the lowest rates potentially in the 4% range.
Will Toronto Become Canada’s Most Expensive Housing Market in 2025?
With average home prices in Toronto and Vancouver neck-and-neck, some experts predict Toronto will become Canada’s most expensive real estate market in 2025.
As of November 2024, the average price across all property types in Vancouver was $1,172,100, just 0.9% lower than a year earlier. In Toronto, the average price hit $1,106,050, up 2.6% from November 2023. This puts the two cities in a virtual dead heat for the highest prices in the country.
Royal LePage forecasts Toronto-area prices rising at about double Vancouver’s rate in 2025. Economists cite stronger economic and job growth in Ontario versus BC as one factor that could lift Toronto ahead of its Western rival.
Limited land supply and geographic constraints also contribute to Toronto’s potential for faster price growth. With Lake Ontario bordering the city to the south, the Greenbelt conservation area hemming in development to the north and east, and the protected Oak Ridges Moraine to the northeast, the region has scarce undeveloped land remaining. Vancouver faces a similarly restrictive geography, with oceans, mountains, and forests restricting sprawl.
However, some experts argue that Vancouver will maintain its edge as Canada’s priciest market. Land limitations in Vancouver are even more severe, especially with the ocean and U.S. border locking the city into a peninsula.
Vancouver also remains highly attractive to foreign real estate investors, especially from Asia. Ongoing demand for overseas buyers could continue to drive prices higher in the West Coast metropolis. While foreign buyers are active in Toronto, Vancouver sees higher international interest.
Ultimately, a narrow lead for Toronto prices could push it ahead of Vancouver in 2025 averages. But the race remains extremely tight, and surprises can’t be ruled out.
Read more to understand why Canadian mortgages are so expensive
Toronto Housing Market FAQs
How will Toronto home prices change in 2025?
Prices are expected to see moderate gains of 2-4% across most housing types, with detached homes potentially rising ~6%. However, risks like higher rates could limit growth.
Will the Toronto housing market fully recover in 2025?
A full recovery is unlikely in 2025 as headwinds persist, especially for condos. But the market should stabilize and strengthen from 2024 lows.
What Toronto housing type will see the fastest price growth in 2025?
Due to sustained demand and tight supply, detached single-family homes are forecast to lead price growth at around 6%.
How will mortgage rates affect Toronto housing in 2025?
Further rate cuts could boost demand and prices, but hikes are also possible. Expectations for major rate drops may not be met.
Is Toronto still a seller’s market for housing?
As of December 2024, the sales-to-new listings ratio indicates Toronto currently remains a seller's market. But conditions are less extreme than in 2021-early 2022.
Are Toronto housing prices still rising in 2025?
Price growth has slowed to minimal levels currently. Modest price increases in the low single digits are anticipated in 2025, but values remain near all-time highs.
Will Toronto housing crash in 2025?
A major crash is unlikely but can't be ruled out if an external shock hits the economy. Expect a continued gradual normalization of Toronto's overheated market.
Summary
In summary, the Toronto housing market appears primed to regain some stability and potentially see modest price growth in 2025 following a sluggish 2024. However, risks remain that could upend the anticipated recovery.
The condo segment faces the greatest challenges, with demand and supply factors providing little upside over the next year. Detached homes look more promising, but even their upside could be dampened if buyer activity remains subdued.
While the worst of the downturn now seems to have passed, Toronto housing in 2025 still faces hurdles on the road to a full rebound. Further interest rate cuts should support this, but global economic winds beyond Canada’s control could blow the market off course.
Navigating Toronto’s real estate landscape in 2025 will require a nuanced, data-driven approach. Relying on expert analysis and comprehensive market insights can help buyers, sellers, investors, and homeowners make informed decisions amid ongoing uncertainty.
