The British Columbia housing market has experienced significant volatility in recent years, from the post-pandemic sellers’ market fueled by low interest rates to the interest rate shock of 2022-2023. However, analysts suggest 2025 may bring a more balanced year than the previous turbulence.
This article will explore the factors driving the BC housing market towards greater stability, regional variations, home sales and price forecasts, and the opportunities and challenges facing buyers and sellers in the Canada housing market context.
BC Average Home Price
The latest data from the BC Real Estate Association shows that the average home price in BC was $979,221 as of November 2024, up 1.7% from the previous year. After declining slightly in 2023 and remaining flat in 2024, home prices across British Columbia are forecast to see a modest 1-3% appreciation in 2025.
| Board Area | Avg. MLS Price Nov 2024 | Avg. MLS Price 2025F |
|---|---|---|
| Victoria | $942,725 | $990,000 |
| Vancouver Island | $728,551 | $742,000 |
| Greater Vancouver | $1,276,716 | $1,313,000 |
| Fraser Valley | $1,033,199 | $1,056,800 |
| Chilliwack | $767,332 | $785,000 |
| Okanagan | $710,298 | $755,200 |
| Kamloops and District | $586,915 | $634,000 |
| BC Northern | $418,495 | $444,000 |
| Kootenay | $548,865 | $565,000 |
| British Columbia | $981,400 | $1,013,600 |
BC Home Sales Activities
The number of home sales in British Columbia is projected to increase by 10-15% in 2025 after declines of 9% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024. However, the housing supply is also expected to rise this year, preventing the type of severe inventory shortages seen in 2016 and 2021. This should result in a more balanced sales-to-active listings ratio across most markets in BC.
Analysts forecast sales will rise to 84,500 units in 2025 based on expectations of stronger economic growth, improving affordability due to lower mortgage rates, and pent-up demand among first-time homebuyers. Markets like the Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island are predicted to lead the way, with sales growth potentially reaching 15% and 8% this year.
While historically low interest rates drove unprecedented demand in 2020 and 2021, sales activity is projected to return to more sustainable levels in 2025 that align with the 10-year average for British Columbia. This should result in a more balanced market dynamic throughout the year.
Is BC a Seller’s or Buyer’s Market in 2025?
In 2025, the British Columbia housing market is expected to be more balanced than the previous years, with neither buyers nor sellers having a significant advantage. However, market conditions may vary depending on the region and property type.
The following table shows the projected SNLR for various regions in BC as of November 2024:
| Region | Sales-to-New Listings Ratio (SNLR) | Market Type |
|---|---|---|
| Greater Vancouver | 59% | Balanced |
| Chilliwack | 70% | Seller’s |
| BC Northern | 102% | Seller’s |
| Powell River | 50% | Balanced |
BC Regional Housing Market 2025
Drilling down to the regional level, forecasts for 2025 predict variable housing market conditions across British Columbia based on local economic factors, demographics, and the balance between supply and demand in each area.
Vancouver Island
The Vancouver Island housing market, particularly in Victoria, has seen a surge in sales activity in recent months. Victoria’s year-to-date unit sales were 3.6% higher than the previous year as of September 2024. The BCREA forecasts a 9.5% increase in unit sales for Victoria in 2024, followed by a 6.2% rise in 2025.
Average home prices in Victoria are expected to remain relatively flat, with a 0.5% decrease in 2024 and a 1.3% increase in 2025. The Vancouver Island Real Estate Board area is projected to see a 2.6% increase in average prices in 2024 and a 0.9% rise in 2025.
| Region | Unit Sales 2024F | Avg. Price 2025F | Avg. Price 2024F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria | 6,500 | 990,000 | $977,100 |
| Vancouver Island | 7,300 | 742,000 | $735,200 |
| Powell River Sunshine Coast | 300 | 632,600 | $602,500 |
Lower Mainland
The Lower Mainland, encompassing Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, and Chilliwack, has experienced a significant upswing in sales in October 2024, with activity surging back to a more normal pace.
Home sales in 2024 are expected to rise by 3.5% in Greater Vancouver, 0.3% in the Fraser Valley, and 8.1% in Chilliwack. In 2025, sales are forecast to grow by 18.5% in Greater Vancouver, 14.3% in the Fraser Valley, and 7.1% in Chilliwack.
Average home prices in the Lower Mainland are projected to see modest growth, with Greater Vancouver prices rising 1.8% in 2024 and 1% in 2025. The Fraser Valley is expected to experience price growth of 2.4% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, while Chilliwack is forecast to see increases of 2.9% and 2.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
| Region | Unit Sales 2024F | Avg. Price 2025F | Avg. Price 2024F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Vancouver | 27,000 | $1,313,000 | $1,299,900 |
| Fraser Valley | 14,000 | $1,056,800 | $1,041,200 |
| Chilliwack and District | 2,800 | $785,000 | $765,600 |
Thompson-Okanagan Region
The Thompson-Okanagan economy has struggled in 2024, leading to faltering home sales across the region. Sales are forecast to fall 5.8% in the Okanagan in 2024, while Kamloops is expected to drop by a modest 0.2%. However, pent-up demand is expected to be unleashed in 2025, with home sales projected to rise 8.3% in Kamloops and 6.7% in the Okanagan.
Average home prices in the Okanagan are forecast to decrease by 0.7% in 2024 and increase by 1.5% in 2025. Kamloops is projected to see price growth of 2.2% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025.
| Region | Unit Sales 2024F | Avg. Price 2025F | Avg. Price 2024F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Okanagan | 7,500 | $755,200 | $744,000 |
| Kamloops and District | 2,400 | $634,000 | $611,200 |
Northern BC
Northern BC has experienced the strongest housing activity of any region in the province for 2024, with year-to-date unit sales 7.2% higher than the previous year. The BC Northern Real Estate Board region is forecast to see a 7% increase in unit sales and a 3.7% increase in home prices in 2024, followed by a 7.7% growth in sales and a 4% growth in prices in 2025.
| Region | Unit Sales 2024F | Avg. Price 2025F | Avg. Price 2024F |
|---|---|---|---|
| BC Northern | 3,900 | $444,000 | $426,800 |
Kootenay Region
Home sales in the Kootenay region have tracked nearly identical to the historical average in 2024. Sales are expected to modestly outpace 2023 at 2,900 units before rising 6.9% in 2025 to 3,100 home sales. Average prices in the Kootenay are forecast to rise 7% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025.
| Region | Unit Sales | Avg. Price 2025F | Avg. Price 2024F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kootenay | 2,900 | $547,500 | $565,000 |
What opportunities and challenges are BC buyers and sellers facing?
First-time buyers
Affordability remains a major barrier for first-time homebuyers, particularly in high-cost markets like Vancouver. Down payments are a significant challenge, and qualifying for a mortgage has become increasingly difficult due to the stress test. However, recent changes allowing 30-year amortizations for first-time buyers will help reduce monthly payments and make homeownership more attainable.
To get into the market, first-time buyers should:
- Save diligently for a down payment
- Explore government programs and incentives for first-time buyers
- Consider more affordable markets or property types
- Work with a mortgage professional to understand qualification requirements and options
Move-up buyers
Move-up buyers, such as young families looking for larger homes, can leverage their existing home equity to facilitate their next purchase. However, finding the right property in a balanced market may require patience and flexibility.
Strategies for move-up buyers include:
- Consult with a real estate professional to understand current market conditions and pricing
- Be prepared to act quickly when the right property becomes available
- Consider a bridge loan or other financing options to manage the transition between selling and buying
Investors
Investors in the BC housing market must navigate rent and vacancy rate trends and financing rule changes. The province’s strong population growth and economic prospects support long-term rental demand, but investors should carefully assess local market conditions and regulations.
Factors for investors to consider:
- Research local rent controls and tenancy laws
- Analyze rental market trends and vacancy rates in target areas
- Understand financing options and requirements, including the impact of mortgage rule changes on investment properties
Sellers
In a balanced market, sellers must be strategic in their pricing and marketing efforts to attract qualified buyers. Setting the right price from the outset is crucial to avoid prolonged listing periods and potential price reductions.
Strategies for sellers in a balanced market:
- Work with a real estate professional to establish a competitive and realistic pricing strategy
- Invest in professional staging and photography to showcase the property’s best features
- Be prepared to negotiate and consider buyer contingencies or requests
More about Canada Housing Market 2025!
The mortgage landscape in Canada has undergone significant changes in recent years, with the introduction of the stress test, revised qualification rules, and fluctuating interest rates. To navigate this landscape successfully, buyers and sellers should:
- Consult with a mortgage professional early in the process to understand current qualification requirements, stress test implications, and available mortgage options
- Consider the impact of different mortgage terms, such as fixed vs. variable rates, on monthly payments and long-term interest costs
- Factor in potential future interest rate changes when budgeting and assessing affordability, particularly for variable-rate mortgages
- Explore alternative lending options, such as credit unions or private lenders, if faced with qualification challenges under traditional bank lending criteria
- Maintain a strong credit profile and stable employment to improve chances of mortgage approval and secure favourable rates
Key takeaways: BC Housing Market
The British Columbia housing market is expected to experience greater balance and stability in 2025, with modest growth in sales and prices across most regions. Economic factors, such as GDP growth, employment, and wage trends, as well as population growth and mortgage rate changes, will continue to shape the market’s trajectory.
Buyers and sellers alike must navigate the opportunities and challenges a more balanced market presents. First-time buyers may find improved affordability through longer amortizations and targeted government programs, while move-up buyers can leverage existing equity to facilitate their next purchase. Investors should carefully assess local market conditions and regulations, while sellers must employ strategic pricing and marketing to attract qualified buyers.
Working with experienced real estate and mortgage professionals is essential to make informed decisions and achieve housing goals in the evolving British Columbia market.
BC Housing Market FAQs
How will economic conditions impact the BC housing market in 2025?
Economic factors such as GDP growth, employment, and wage trends are expected to support the BC housing market in 2025, although potential U.S. tariffs could introduce some uncertainty.
What role does population growth play in the BC housing market?
British Columbia's population growth has been a significant driver of housing demand, particularly in the Lower Mainland, and is expected to continue supporting long-term housing market stability.
How will changes in mortgage qualification rules affect the BC housing market?
Recent changes to mortgage qualification rules, such as allowing 30-year amortizations for first-time homebuyers and raising the insured mortgage cap to $1.5 million, are expected to boost housing market activity by improving affordability.
Is the housing supply expected to keep up with demand in BC?
Housing starts in British Columbia are forecast to decrease from 46,900 units in 2024 to 44,500 units in 2025, which may limit the market's ability to fully address the province's housing supply deficit.
Which regions in BC are expected to see the strongest housing market performance in 2025?
The Lower Mainland, particularly Greater Vancouver, is forecast to experience significant growth in home sales in 2025, while Northern BC and the Kootenay region are also expected to see strong performance.
What challenges do first-time homebuyers face in the BC housing market?
Affordability remains a major barrier for first-time homebuyers in BC, particularly in high-cost markets like Vancouver. Down payments and mortgage qualification are also significant hurdles.
What factors should investors consider when evaluating opportunities in the BC housing market?
Investors should carefully assess local market conditions, rental trends, financing options, and regulations when considering opportunities in the BC housing market, taking into account the province's strong population growth and economic prospects.